Padova 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Padova (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Euganeo, Padova have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Padova against 0.90 for Reggiana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Padova lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Padova winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Padova — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Reggiana — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 53% versus Reggiana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 41% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.26 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.758 / defence 1.157 | Reggiana attack 0.733 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.110. Padova's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Padova games / 72 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Reggiana 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Padova 60% | Reggiana 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Padova 1.26 / Reggiana 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.758 / def 1.157 | Reggiana attack 0.733 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Padova (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Reggiana xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Reggiana kick off?
Padova vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Reggiana?
Padova 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Padova vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Reggiana part of?
Padova vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 41% chance of winning, Reggiana a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Padova and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Padova and Reggiana in?
Padova (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Padova's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.73x) against Padova's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
41%
2.42
33%
3.02
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Padova xG
Total xG
2.20
0.94
Reggiana xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Padova and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Padova and 0.94 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Padova come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 10D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (8W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Padova against 0.97 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Padova's home form reads 4W 7D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 0.97 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Reggiana away?
Padova's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.12 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Padova
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Padova 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Reggiana?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 65%, Reggiana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Padova) and 53% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Padova's games and 53% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Padova's recent games and 53% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Reggiana tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.26 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Reggiana attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 26%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 41%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.09 PPG, Reggiana 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.