Padova 2-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Padova welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Euganeo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.38 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.38 PPG (Padova) versus 1.60 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Padova register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Juve Stabia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Padova in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 50% | Juve Stabia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.874 / defence 1.199 | Juve Stabia attack 1.043 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.133. Data: 8 Padova games / 46 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 32% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 36%. Fair-value odds: Padova 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Juve Stabia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Padova 67% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 32% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Padova 1.33 / Juve Stabia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.874 / def 1.199 | Juve Stabia attack 1.043 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Padova vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Juve Stabia?
Padova 2 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Padova vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Juve Stabia part of?
Padova vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 32% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Padova and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Juve Stabia in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Padova's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
32%
3.16
33%
3.05
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Padova xG
Total xG
2.75
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Padova and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Padova and 1.42 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Padova's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 1L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.38 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Padova have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Padova have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Juve Stabia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Juve Stabia away?
Padova's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.33 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Padova or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Juve Stabia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-3 Padova.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Padova at 67%, Juve Stabia at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Padova and 100% for Juve Stabia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Padova have failed to score in 33% of games; Juve Stabia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Padova's games and 67% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Padova's matches and 100% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Padova and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Padova and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova and Juve Stabia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Juve Stabia attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 32% | Draw 33% | Juve Stabia 36%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 50%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.38 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.