Padova vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Arezzo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Arezzo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Arezzo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 30% | Arezzo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.38 xG and Arezzo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.862 / defence 0.945 | Arezzo attack 0.916 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Padova games / 10 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 42% | Draw 31% | Arezzo 27%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Arezzo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 30% | Arezzo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 42% | Draw 31% | Arezzo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Padova 1.38 / Arezzo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.862 / def 0.945 | Arezzo attack 0.916 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Padova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Arezzo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Arezzo kick off?
Padova vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Arezzo part of?
Padova vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 42% chance of winning, Arezzo a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Padova and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Arezzo in?
Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.86) and Arezzo's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arezzo's attack (0.92x) against Padova's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.25
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Padova xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Arezzo xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Padova and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Padova and 1.07 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Padova's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Padova against 1.10 for Arezzo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Padova have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arezzo's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Arezzo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arezzo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 0.90 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: Padova have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Arezzo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.40 PPG; Arezzo away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Padova or Arezzo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Arezzo in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 40%, Arezzo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Padova) and 80% (Arezzo).
On the defensive side: Padova keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Padova's recent matches and 60% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Padova's recent games and 80% of Arezzo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Arezzo tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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