Cosenza 2-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Relegation Play-offs - Final sees Vicenza Virtus travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 May 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Vicenza Virtus's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Vicenza Virtus's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Vicenza Virtus and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Vicenza Virtus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Vicenza Virtus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 41% | Vicenza Virtus 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.25 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.920 / defence 1.287 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.716 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Cosenza games / 38 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 29%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Vicenza Virtus 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vicenza Virtus (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Vicenza Virtus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Cosenza 1.25 / Vicenza Virtus 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.920 / def 1.287 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.716 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vicenza Virtus xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Cosenza 2 - 0 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus is a Relegation Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 1 | Vicenza Virtus 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.32
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.24
0.99
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.99 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 8W 11D 20L from 39 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 22L across 39 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 0.90 PPG, Vicenza Virtus on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vicenza Virtus's away record stands at 4W 2D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.00 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 8W 11D 20L in their last 39 games (0.90 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 10W 7D 22L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Cosenza's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.42 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Vicenza Virtus specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Cosenza 2-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 47%, Vicenza Virtus 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cosenza) and 47% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 32% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cosenza's recent matches and 37% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cosenza's recent games and 47% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Vicenza Virtus 2-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Relegation Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.25 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.99 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 29%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 41%, Vicenza Virtus 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.90 PPG, Vicenza Virtus 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.