Cosenza 2-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 35%, yet in-form Reggina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cosenza vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Reggina travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reggina are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Reggina have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Cosenza's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Reggina winning.
It is worth noting that Reggina have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Reggina in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Reggina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 41% | Reggina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.08 xG and Reggina 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.800 / defence 0.937 | Reggina attack 1.069 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.020. Data: 64 Cosenza games / 64 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 35% | Draw 32% | Reggina 32%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Reggina 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reggina (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Reggina 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 35% | Draw 32% | Reggina 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Cosenza 1.08 / Reggina 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.800 / def 0.937 | Reggina attack 1.069 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Reggina xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Reggina kick off?
Cosenza vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Reggina?
Cosenza 2 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Cosenza vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Reggina part of?
Cosenza vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 35% chance of winning, Reggina a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cosenza and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggina?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 3W.
What form are Cosenza and Reggina in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Reggina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.09
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.10
1.02
Reggina xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.02 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 14W 19D 31L from 64 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 26L across 64 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggina by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 12W 8D 12L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reggina's away record stands at 10W 8D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.08 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Reggina in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 14W 19D 31L in their last 64 games (0.95 PPG), while Reggina have gone 26W 12D 26L in their last 64 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Reggina away?
Cosenza's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.38 PPG; Reggina away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Reggina in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Reggina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
3
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Reggina have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2023, when Cosenza 2-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Reggina?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Reggina 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Cosenza and 28% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cosenza have failed to score in 31% of games; Reggina in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 38% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Cosenza's recent games and 28% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Reggina tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Reggina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Reggina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Reggina 2-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.08 xG and Reggina 1.02 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Reggina attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 35% | Draw 32% | Reggina 32%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 41%, Reggina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Reggina's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.