Cosenza 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Palermo at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Palermo's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cosenza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 2, Palermo 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Palermo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Palermo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.50 xG and Palermo 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.905 / defence 1.085 | Palermo attack 1.210 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.240. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Cosenza games / 70 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 34% | Draw 26% | Palermo 40%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Palermo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Cosenza dominate the H2H record, yet Palermo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Palermo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 34% | Draw 26% | Palermo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Cosenza 1.50 / Palermo 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.905 / def 1.085 | Palermo attack 1.210 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Palermo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Palermo xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Palermo kick off?
Cosenza vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Palermo?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Cosenza vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Palermo part of?
Cosenza vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 34% chance of winning, Palermo a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cosenza and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Palermo?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 1 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Palermo in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.80
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cosenza xG
Total xG
3.13
1.63
Palermo xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.63 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza come into this having played 70 games, going 16W 25D 29L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.41 PPG from 70 outings (25W 24D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.04 PPG, Palermo on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cosenza's home form reads 11W 12D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.17 points per game from 35 outings (9W 14D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.50 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Palermo in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 25D 29L in their last 70 games (1.04 PPG), while Palermo have gone 25W 24D 21L in their last 70 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Palermo away?
Cosenza's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.29 PPG; Palermo away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Palermo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Palermo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Palermo?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 57%, Palermo 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 49% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cosenza's games and 66% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 49% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Palermo tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Palermo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 33, as Cosenza and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.50 xG and Palermo 1.63 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Palermo attack 1.21 / defence 1.33, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 34% | Draw 26% | Palermo 40%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 37%, Palermo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.04 PPG, Palermo 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.