Cosenza 2-2 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Lecce's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Lecce have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lecce are 1.00 PPG clear of Cosenza in recent Serie B fixtures (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cosenza 0W, Lecce 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Lecce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Lecce 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 39% | Lecce 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.74 xG and Lecce 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.790 / defence 1.264 | Lecce attack 0.848 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.083. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Cosenza games / 29 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 20% | Draw 38% | Lecce 42%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 5.00 | Draw 2.63 | Lecce 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Lecce 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 20% | Draw 38% | Lecce 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Cosenza 0.74 / Lecce 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.790 / def 1.264 | Lecce attack 0.848 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Lecce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lecce xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Lecce kick off?
Cosenza vs Lecce kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Lecce?
Cosenza 2 - 2 Lecce.
Where is Cosenza vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Lecce part of?
Cosenza vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 20% chance of winning, Lecce a 42% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cosenza and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Lecce in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.79) and Lecce's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.85x) against Cosenza's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
20%
5.02
38%
2.64
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.90
1.16
Lecce xG
5.02
20%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.03
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 17.3 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.16 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 5W 8D 15L from 28 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 2L across 28 games — 1.93 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 5W 2D 6L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 7D 1L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.68 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lecce in 61%.
Defensively: Lecce in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Lecce in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 5W 8D 15L in their last 28 games (0.82 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 12D 2L in their last 28 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.31 PPG; Lecce away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Lecce in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Lecce have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Cosenza 2-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 46%, Lecce 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Cosenza and 23% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Lecce in 38%; Cosenza have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cosenza's recent matches and 54% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cosenza's recent games and 23% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Lecce tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lecce in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Lecce share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Lecce finished level at 2-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.74 xG and Lecce 1.16 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecce outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.79 / defence 1.26 against Lecce attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 20% | Draw 38% | Lecce 42%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Lecce 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.