Cosenza 1-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 42%, yet in-form Carrarese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cosenza vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Carrarese in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Cosenza are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Carrarese have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Carrarese's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Carrarese are 0.80 PPG clear of Cosenza over their recent games (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cosenza's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) — Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Carrarese in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Carrarese edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended Cosenza 0–1 Carrarese — a Carrarese win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 58% versus Carrarese 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 33% | Carrarese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.761 / defence 1.047 | Carrarese attack 0.745 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.101. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Carrarese's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Cosenza's last 62 games and Carrarese's last 24.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.41 | Draw 2.91 | Carrarese 4.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cosenza 60% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Cosenza 1.20 / Carrarese 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.761 / def 1.047 | Carrarese attack 0.745 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Carrarese xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Carrarese kick off?
Cosenza vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Cosenza vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Carrarese part of?
Cosenza vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 42% chance of winning, Carrarese a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cosenza and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Cosenza vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.74x) against Cosenza's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 62 games and Carrarese's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.91
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.06
0.86
Carrarese xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.86 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 4W 10D 10L from 24 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 11L across 24 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Cosenza against 1.12 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 2W 6D 4L from their last 12 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across their last 12 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
Cosenza (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Cosenza vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 10D 10L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Carrarese away?
Cosenza's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.00 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Carrarese in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Carrarese?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Cosenza 1-0 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Carrarese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Cosenza and 50% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 42% of games; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Carrarese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 58% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cosenza and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Cosenza's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cosenza's recent matches and 67% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Carrarese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Carrarese attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 33%, Carrarese 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.92 PPG, Carrarese 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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