Monza 4-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to U-Power Stadium to face Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Monza (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monza have posted 5W 1D 0L at U-Power Stadium — 2.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Monza's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Monza — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 57% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 29% | Cosenza 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.124 / defence 0.957 | Cosenza attack 0.659 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.155. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Monza games / 14 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 60% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 15%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Cosenza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Monza (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Monza 50% | Cosenza 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 60% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Monza 1.73 / Cosenza 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.124 / def 0.957 | Cosenza attack 0.659 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Monza (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Cosenza xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Cosenza kick off?
Monza vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Cosenza?
Monza 4 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Monza vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Cosenza part of?
Monza vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 60% chance of winning, Cosenza a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Monza and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Cosenza in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Monza's attack rating (1.12) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.66x) against Monza's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
60%
1.65
25%
4.00
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Monza xG
Total xG
2.46
0.73
Cosenza xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
3%
38.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Monza and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Monza and 0.73 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Monza have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 5W 7D 2L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monza have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.93 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Cosenza away?
Monza's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.67 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Monza or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cosenza in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Cosenza have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Cosenza 0-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Cosenza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Cosenza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Monza) and 50% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cosenza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monza's games and 67% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Monza's recent games and 50% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Cosenza tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Cosenza 4-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.73 xG and Cosenza 0.73 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Cosenza attack 0.66 / defence 1.54, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 60% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 15%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 29%, Cosenza 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Monza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.