Modena 0-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Palermo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.60 PPG, Palermo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Modena have won 0, Palermo 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 2–5 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Palermo trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 53% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Palermo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.90 xG and Palermo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.959 / defence 0.910 | Palermo attack 1.247 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.179. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Modena games / 45 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 21% | Draw 36% | Palermo 43%. Fair-value odds: Modena 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | Palermo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Modena 40% | Palermo 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 21% | Draw 36% | Palermo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Modena 0.90 / Palermo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.959 / def 0.910 | Palermo attack 1.247 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Palermo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Palermo xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Palermo kick off?
Modena vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Palermo?
Modena 0 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Modena vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Palermo part of?
Modena vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 21% chance of winning, Palermo a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Modena and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 2W.
What form are Modena and Palermo in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
21%
4.72
36%
2.81
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Modena xG
Total xG
2.23
1.34
Palermo xG
4.72
21%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
18.00
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Modena and 1.34 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 12D 17L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 16W 17D 12L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.33 PPG, Palermo on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 6W 9D 8L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Palermo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Palermo have gone 16W 17D 12L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Palermo away?
Modena's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.57 PPG; Palermo away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Modena or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Palermo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2023, when Palermo won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Palermo have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Modena 0-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 48%, Palermo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Modena) and 48% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Modena's games and 65% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Palermo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Palermo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Modena 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.90 xG and Palermo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Modena fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Palermo attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 21% | Draw 36% | Palermo 43%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Palermo 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.