Modena vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Padova at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Modena — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Padova — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Modena, 2 for Padova and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Padova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Padova trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 52% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.28 xG and Padova 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.030 / defence 0.966 | Padova attack 0.971 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Modena games / 40 Padova games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 30% | Padova 31%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Padova 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Padova (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Padova 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 30% | Padova 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.28 / Padova 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.030 / def 0.966 | Padova attack 0.971 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Padova xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Padova kick off?
Modena vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Padova part of?
Modena vs Padova is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 39% chance of winning, Padova a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Padova 2W.
What form are Modena and Padova in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.34
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Modena xG
Total xG
2.39
1.11
Padova xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Modena and 1.11 for Padova, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena's recent record stands at 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 16L across 40 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.45 PPG, Padova on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Modena have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 7W 3D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Modena have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Padova in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Padova have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Padova away?
Modena's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.55 PPG; Padova away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Modena or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Padova in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
0
Draws
2
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Padova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 55%, Padova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Modena) and 40% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Padova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Modena's recent matches and 40% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Modena's recent games and 40% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Padova tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Padova in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.