Modena 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Empoli meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Empoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Modena, 0 for Empoli and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Empoli 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Empoli 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.23 xG and Empoli 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.850 / defence 0.976 | Empoli attack 0.957 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.133. Data: 42 Modena games / 42 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 40% | Draw 29% | Empoli 31%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Empoli 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 40% | Draw 29% | Empoli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.23 / Empoli 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.850 / def 0.976 | Empoli attack 0.957 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Modena (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Empoli xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Empoli kick off?
Modena vs Empoli kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Empoli?
Modena 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Modena vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Empoli part of?
Modena vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 40% chance of winning, Empoli a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 1 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Modena and Empoli in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.96x) against Modena's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.47
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Modena xG
Total xG
2.29
1.06
Empoli xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Modena and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Modena and 1.06 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (11W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Modena against 1.12 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (5W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Empoli in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Empoli away?
Modena's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.48 PPG; Empoli away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Modena or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Empoli in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Empoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Modena 2-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Empoli?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Modena) and 57% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Modena's matches and 57% of Empoli's.
Do Modena and Empoli tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Empoli in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.23 xG and Empoli 1.06 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Empoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 40% | Draw 29% | Empoli 31%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Empoli 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.40 PPG, Empoli 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.