Modena vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Modena welcome Arezzo to Stadio Alberto Braglia. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arezzo stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.10 PPG versus Arezzo's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arezzo in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 33% versus Arezzo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Modena 67% | Arezzo 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.75 xG and Arezzo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.863 / defence 0.966 | Arezzo attack 0.828 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Modena games / 3 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 57% | Draw 23% | Arezzo 20%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Arezzo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Modena (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Arezzo 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 57% | Draw 23% | Arezzo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Modena 1.75 / Arezzo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.863 / def 0.966 | Arezzo attack 0.828 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Modena (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Arezzo xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Arezzo kick off?
Modena vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Where is Modena vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Arezzo part of?
Modena vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 57% chance of winning, Arezzo a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Modena and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Arezzo in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Arezzo (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.86x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.27
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Modena xG
Total xG
2.68
0.93
Arezzo xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
29.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Modena and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Modena and 0.93 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Arezzo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Arezzo sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Arezzo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 1.33 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arezzo in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Arezzo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Modena or Arezzo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Arezzo in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 33%, Arezzo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Modena and 100% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 33% of games; Arezzo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Modena's recent matches and 67% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Modena's matches and 100% of Arezzo's.
Do Modena and Arezzo tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.