Mantova vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Mantova have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mantova have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 2–4 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mantova in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 52% versus Cremonese 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 2.01 xG and Cremonese 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.239 / defence 0.898 | Cremonese attack 0.867 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 42 Mantova games / 4 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 63% | Draw 21% | Cremonese 16%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Cremonese 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mantova 50% | Cremonese 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 63% | Draw 21% | Cremonese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Mantova 2.01 / Cremonese 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.239 / def 0.898 | Cremonese attack 0.867 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Mantova (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cremonese xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Cremonese kick off?
Mantova vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cremonese part of?
Mantova vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 63% chance of winning, Cremonese a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mantova and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in?
Mantova (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.24) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.82
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.92
0.91
Cremonese xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
46.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Mantova and 0.91 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 8D 18L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 9W 11D 22L from 42 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mantova are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (11W 3D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.88 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Cremonese away?
Mantova's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.71 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Cremonese 4-2 Mantova.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 62%, Cremonese 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mantova) and 43% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mantova's recent matches and 33% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mantova's recent games and 43% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Cremonese tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.