Lecce 2-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lecce at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Monday 25 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Lecce against 1.70 for Pisa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lecce lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 54% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 46% | Pisa 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.59 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.191 / defence 0.956 | Pisa attack 0.792 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.073. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Lecce games / 35 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 54% | Draw 29% | Pisa 17%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 5.88. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 60% | Pisa 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 54% | Draw 29% | Pisa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Lecce 1.59 / Pisa 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.191 / def 0.956 | Pisa attack 0.792 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Lecce (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Pisa kick off?
Lecce vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Pisa?
Lecce 2 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Lecce vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Pisa part of?
Lecce vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 54% chance of winning, Pisa a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lecce and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Lecce and Pisa in?
Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.79x) against Lecce's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.42
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.40
0.81
Pisa xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
4%
28.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lecce and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lecce and 0.81 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lecce's recent record stands at 17W 14D 4L from 35 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 6L across 35 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Lecce against 1.80 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 11W 5D 1L from 17 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 7W 5D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.29 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Pisa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Pisa in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 17W 14D 4L in their last 35 games (1.86 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 12D 6L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Pisa away?
Lecce's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.24 PPG; Pisa away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lecce or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pisa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lecce have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lecce
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Lecce have won 3, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Pisa?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 59%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lecce) and 29% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lecce's games and 53% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lecce's recent games and 29% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Pisa tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pisa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Pisa 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.59 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pisa landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Pisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 54% | Draw 29% | Pisa 17%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 46%, Pisa 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.86 PPG, Pisa 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.