Lecce 0-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Perugia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Perugia travel to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare to take on Lecce. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 4W 3D 1L from 8 Serie B matches — 1.88 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's home record at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Serie B appearances (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Perugia — All Games: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 0.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 0L across 4 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 4 games (100%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.88 PPG (Lecce) versus 1.62 (Perugia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 50% versus Perugia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 62% | Perugia 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.95 xG and Perugia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.260 / defence 1.098 | Perugia attack 0.774 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.233. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 0.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Perugia's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Lecce games / 8 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 34% | Perugia 36%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Perugia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 67% | Perugia 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 34% | Perugia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Lecce 0.95 / Perugia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.260 / def 1.098 | Perugia attack 0.774 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Perugia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Perugia xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Perugia kick off?
Lecce vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Perugia?
Lecce 0 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Lecce vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Perugia part of?
Lecce vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 30% chance of winning, Perugia a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lecce and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Perugia in?
Lecce (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lecce's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
30%
3.29
34%
2.94
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.00
1.05
Perugia xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Lecce and 1.05 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Lecce have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 4W 3D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 3W 4D 1L from 8 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.88 PPG, Perugia on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Lecce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Perugia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.12 scored and 0.62 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Perugia in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Perugia in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Perugia have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Perugia away?
Lecce's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.33 PPG; Perugia away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Lecce or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Perugia in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Perugia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Perugia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Perugia 1-1 Lecce.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Perugia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lecce 67% BTTS, Perugia 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lecce) and 33% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Perugia in 100%; Perugia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lecce's recent matches and 0% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lecce's recent games and 33% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Perugia tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Perugia in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lecce's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 9, as Lecce and Perugia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.95 xG and Perugia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lecce fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Perugia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.26 / defence 1.10 against Perugia attack 0.77 / defence 0.73, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 30% | Draw 34% | Perugia 36%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 62%, Perugia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.88 PPG, Perugia 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.