Juve Stabia 3-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juve Stabia and Spezia meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Spezia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juve Stabia, 1 for Spezia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Spezia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Spezia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.45 xG and Spezia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.939 / defence 1.045 | Spezia attack 0.898 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.103. Data: 69 Juve Stabia games / 69 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 29% | Spezia 26%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Spezia 3.85. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 29% | Spezia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Juve Stabia 1.45 / Spezia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.939 / def 1.045 | Spezia attack 0.898 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Spezia xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Spezia kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Juve Stabia 3 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Spezia part of?
Juve Stabia vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 45% chance of winning, Spezia a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juve Stabia and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 1 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Spezia in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.94) and Spezia's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.90x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.41
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.48
1.04
Spezia xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.04 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 28D 19L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.42 PPG from 72 outings (26W 24D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.42 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Juve Stabia's home form reads 17W 12D 6L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.20 points per game from 35 outings (9W 15D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.29 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Spezia in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 25W 28D 19L in their last 72 games (1.43 PPG), while Spezia have gone 26W 24D 22L in their last 72 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Spezia away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.80 PPG; Spezia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Spezia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Juve Stabia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Spezia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 49%, Spezia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Juve Stabia) and 34% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Spezia in 40%; Spezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 40% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 34% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Spezia tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Spezia in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Spezia 3-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.45 xG and Spezia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 45% | Draw 29% | Spezia 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Spezia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.43 PPG, Spezia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.