Juve Stabia 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Juve Stabia take on Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Palermo travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.40 PPG versus Palermo's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 1, Palermo 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Palermo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.06 xG and Palermo 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.898 / defence 0.743 | Palermo attack 1.027 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.070. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Juve Stabia games / 49 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 38% | Palermo 24%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Palermo 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 30% | Palermo 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 38% | Palermo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Juve Stabia 1.06 / Palermo 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.898 / def 0.743 | Palermo attack 1.027 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Palermo xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Palermo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Palermo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 38% chance of winning, Palermo a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Juve Stabia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
Record (3 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 2W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.66
38%
2.63
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.88
0.82
Palermo xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.82 for Palermo, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 18W 18D 14L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 17L across 50 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.44 PPG, Palermo on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palermo's away record stands at 8W 6D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.34 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 18W 18D 14L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Palermo have gone 19W 14D 17L in their last 50 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Palermo away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.88 PPG; Palermo away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palermo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 46%, Palermo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 54% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 62% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 54% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Palermo tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.06 xG and Palermo 0.82 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 0.74 against Palermo attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 38% | Palermo 24%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG, Palermo 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.