Juve Stabia 2-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Juve Stabia take on Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mantova make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mantova (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.00 for Mantova. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Mantova 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Mantova 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.05 xG and Mantova 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.738 / defence 0.742 | Mantova attack 0.798 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.156. Juve Stabia's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Juve Stabia games / 43 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 40% | Mantova 20%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.50 | Draw 2.50 | Mantova 5.00. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 40% and away win at 20% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 30% | Mantova 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 40% | Mantova 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Juve Stabia 1.05 / Mantova 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.738 / def 0.742 | Mantova attack 0.798 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Mantova xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Mantova kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Mantova kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 September 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Mantova part of?
Juve Stabia vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 40% chance of winning, Mantova a 20% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Juve Stabia and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Mantova in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Mantova (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.74) and Mantova's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.80x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
40%
2.50
40%
2.48
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.74
0.68
Mantova xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
7%
14.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.68 for Mantova, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 16D 12L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.09 PPG from 43 outings (11W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.09 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Juve Stabia's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 0.62 points per game from 21 outings (2W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 15W 16D 12L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Mantova have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Mantova away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.86 PPG; Mantova away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Mantova in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Mantova?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 43%, Mantova 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Juve Stabia) and 57% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 29% of games; Mantova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 67% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 57% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Mantova tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mantova in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Mantova 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Mantova 2-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.05 xG and Mantova 0.68 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.74 / defence 0.74 against Mantova attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 40% | Draw 40% | Mantova 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Mantova 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG, Mantova 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.