Juve Stabia 2-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Cesena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Cesena have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cesena away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Juve Stabia, 0.70 for Cesena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Juve Stabia 2W, Cesena 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Cesena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Cesena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.57 xG and Cesena 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / defence 1.033 | Cesena attack 0.806 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.099. Data: 71 Juve Stabia games / 71 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Cesena 20%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Cesena 5.00. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 60% | Cesena 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Cesena 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Juve Stabia 1.57 / Cesena 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / def 1.033 | Cesena attack 0.806 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cesena xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cesena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Juve Stabia 2 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cesena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 51% chance of winning, Cesena a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
Record (3 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 1 | Cesena 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cesena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Cesena (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 1.01x the league average against Cesena's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.81x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.49
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.49
0.91
Cesena xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
23.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.91 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 25W 27D 20L from 72 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 27L across 72 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.35 for Cesena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 18W 12D 6L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cesena's away record stands at 12W 7D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Cesena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cesena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 25W 27D 20L in their last 72 games (1.42 PPG), while Cesena have gone 26W 19D 27L in their last 72 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cesena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.83 PPG; Cesena away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cesena in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cesena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 3, Cesena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Juve Stabia 2-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cesena?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Cesena 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juve Stabia) and 47% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cesena in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cesena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 56% of Cesena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 47% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cesena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cesena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cesena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Cesena 2-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.57 xG and Cesena 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cesena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Cesena attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 29% | Cesena 20%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Cesena 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cesena's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG, Cesena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.