Genoa 3-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Spal meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Spal's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Spal's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Genoa have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Spal in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 0 for Spal and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Spal — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 41% versus Spal 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 38% | Spal 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.98 xG and Spal 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.843 / defence 0.724 | Spal attack 0.847 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.033. Genoa's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Genoa games / 63 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 36% | Spal 22%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Spal 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Spal's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 20% | Spal 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 36% | Spal 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Genoa 0.98 / Spal 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.843 / def 0.724 | Spal attack 0.847 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Spal xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Spal kick off?
Genoa vs Spal kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Spal?
Genoa 3 - 0 Spal.
Where is Genoa vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Spal part of?
Genoa vs Spal is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 42% chance of winning, Spal a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Genoa and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Genoa and Spal in?
Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.84x the league average against Spal's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.85x) against Genoa's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
42%
2.39
36%
2.77
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.62
0.63
Spal xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.30
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 12.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Genoa and 0.63 for Spal, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 24D 23L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal's form line: 14W 25D 24L from 63 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Genoa against 1.06 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (8W 14D 9L).
On the road, Spal have gone 7W 13D 11L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Spal in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 16W 24D 23L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Spal have gone 14W 25D 24L in their last 63 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Spal away?
Genoa's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.23 PPG; Spal away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Genoa or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Spal in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Genoa
0
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Spal have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Genoa 3-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Spal?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 36%, Spal 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Genoa and 36% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 42% of games; Spal in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Genoa's recent matches and 45% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Genoa's recent games and 36% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Spal tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Spal in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genoa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Spal 3-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.98 xG and Spal 0.63 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against Spal attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 42% | Draw 36% | Spal 22%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Spal 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spal's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.14 PPG, Spal 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.