Genoa 3-3 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Parma at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Genoa, 1.50 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Parma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.80 xG and Parma 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.739 / defence 0.971 | Parma attack 0.866 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.049. Genoa's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Genoa games / 41 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 34% | Parma 35%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Parma 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 34% | Parma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Genoa 0.80 / Parma 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.739 / def 0.971 | Parma attack 0.866 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Parma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Parma xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Parma kick off?
Genoa vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Parma?
Genoa 3 - 3 Parma.
Where is Genoa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Parma part of?
Genoa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 30% chance of winning, Parma a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Genoa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Parma in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Parma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.74x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.87x) against Genoa's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
30%
3.28
34%
2.92
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.68
0.88
Parma xG
3.28
30%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 16.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Genoa and 0.88 for Parma, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 17D 18L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 12W 18D 11L from 41 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (3W 9D 8L).
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 8D 6L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.24 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Parma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 6W 17D 18L in their last 41 games (0.85 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 18D 11L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.90 PPG; Parma away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Genoa or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Parma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Parma 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Parma?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 40%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Genoa) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Parma in 40%; Genoa have failed to score in 50% of games; Parma in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Genoa's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Genoa's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Parma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Parma in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Parma share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Parma finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.80 xG and Parma 0.88 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Parma attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 30% | Draw 34% | Parma 35%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Parma 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.