Genoa 0-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 2 as Genoa welcome Benevento to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.20 PPG, Benevento 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Genoa's 30% rate and Benevento's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Benevento trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 44% versus Benevento 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 44% | Benevento 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.08 xG and Benevento 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.874 / defence 1.150 | Benevento attack 1.042 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.127. Data: 1 Genoa games / 39 Benevento games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 28% | Benevento 42%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Benevento 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 30% | Draw 28% | Benevento 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Genoa 1.08 / Benevento 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.874 / def 1.150 | Benevento attack 1.042 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Benevento (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Benevento xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Benevento kick off?
Genoa vs Benevento kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Benevento?
Genoa 0 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Genoa vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Benevento part of?
Genoa vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 30% chance of winning, Benevento a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genoa and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Benevento in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
30%
3.38
28%
3.57
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.44
1.35
Benevento xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Genoa and 1.35 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 39 games, going 5W 16D 18L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.67 PPG from 39 outings (19W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 3W 8D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.54 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Benevento in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 5W 16D 18L in their last 39 games (0.79 PPG), while Benevento have gone 19W 8D 12L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.89 PPG; Benevento away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Genoa or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Benevento in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Benevento 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Benevento?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Benevento 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Genoa and 26% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Benevento in 32%; Genoa have failed to score in 47% of games; Benevento in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 37% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Genoa's recent games and 26% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Benevento tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Benevento in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, as Genoa and Benevento drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.08 xG and Benevento 1.35 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benevento landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Benevento attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 30% | Draw 28% | Benevento 42%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 44%, Benevento 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benevento's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.