Genoa 4-3 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Bari travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Bari — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bari's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 2.30 PPG versus Bari's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Genoa's 10% rate and Bari's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Genoa, 0 for Bari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Bari trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 35% versus Bari 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 38% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.17 xG and Bari 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.110 / defence 0.692 | Bari attack 1.041 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Genoa's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Genoa games / 37 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 44% | Draw 35% | Bari 21%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Bari 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 10% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 44% | Draw 35% | Bari 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Genoa 1.17 / Bari 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.110 / def 0.692 | Bari attack 1.041 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Genoa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Bari xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Bari kick off?
Genoa vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Bari?
Genoa 4 - 3 Bari.
Where is Genoa vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Bari part of?
Genoa vs Bari is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 44% chance of winning, Bari a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Genoa and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Bari 0W.
What form are Genoa and Bari in?
Genoa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Bari (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Genoa's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
44%
2.27
35%
2.88
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.91
0.74
Bari xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Genoa and 0.74 for Bari, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 11D 6L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.76 PPG from 37 outings (17W 14D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.92 PPG, Bari on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Genoa's home form reads 11W 6D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.94 points per game from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.49 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games; Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Bari in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 games (1.92 PPG), while Bari have gone 17W 14D 6L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Bari away?
Genoa's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.17 PPG; Bari away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Genoa or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Bari runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Genoa
0
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Bari have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Genoa 4-3 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Bari?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Genoa 22% BTTS, Bari 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Genoa and 33% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 72% of their matches; Bari in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Genoa's recent matches and 44% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Genoa's recent games and 33% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Bari tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bari in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Bari 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Bari 4-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.17 xG and Bari 0.74 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.11 / defence 0.69 against Bari attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 44% | Draw 35% | Bari 21%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.92 PPG, Bari 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.