Frosinone 1-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Frosinone's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Perugia's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Perugia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 47% versus Perugia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Perugia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.46 xG and Perugia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.143 / defence 0.615 | Perugia attack 0.960 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.110. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.615 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Frosinone games / 49 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 55% | Draw 30% | Perugia 15%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Perugia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Perugia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 55% | Draw 30% | Perugia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Frosinone 1.46 / Perugia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.143 / def 0.615 | Perugia attack 0.960 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Perugia xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Perugia kick off?
Frosinone vs Perugia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Perugia?
Frosinone 1 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Frosinone vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Perugia part of?
Frosinone vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 55% chance of winning, Perugia a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Frosinone and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Perugia in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Perugia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.14) and Perugia's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.96x) against Frosinone's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
55%
1.81
30%
3.38
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.12
0.66
Perugia xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
4%
28.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.66 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Perugia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 23W 13D 13L from 49 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 17L across 49 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Frosinone against 1.27 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 15W 6D 3L from 24 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Perugia's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Perugia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while Perugia have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Perugia away?
Frosinone's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.12 PPG; Perugia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Perugia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 12 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Perugia 1-1 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 42%, Perugia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Frosinone) and 46% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Perugia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Frosinone's recent matches and 54% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Frosinone's recent games and 46% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Perugia tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Perugia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Perugia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Perugia 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.46 xG and Perugia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.14 / defence 0.61 against Perugia attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 55% | Draw 30% | Perugia 15%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Perugia 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Perugia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.67 PPG, Perugia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.