Frosinone 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Frosinone (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Frosinone face Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Cosenza at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Frosinone have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 2, Cosenza 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 43% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 49% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.93 xG and Cosenza 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.426 / defence 0.913 | Cosenza attack 0.737 / defence 1.740. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 0.959. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.740 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Frosinone games / 67 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 83% | Draw 12% | Cosenza 5%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Cosenza 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 83% | Draw 12% | Cosenza 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 45% | xG Frosinone 2.93 / Cosenza 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.426 / def 0.913 | Cosenza attack 0.737 / def 1.740 | league avg home 1.179 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Cosenza xG
45%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Cosenza kick off?
Frosinone vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Frosinone 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Frosinone vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cosenza part of?
Frosinone vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 83% chance of winning, Cosenza a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Frosinone and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Cosenza in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.43) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.74), the model arrives at 2.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.7%), 4-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
83%
1.21
12%
8.18
5%
20.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.7%
Home win
4 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.57
0.65
Cosenza xG
1.21
83%
Home win
8.18
12%
Draw
20.28
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
5%
18.67
Win to Nil
43%
2.30
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.65 for Cosenza, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 34W 18D 15L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 16W 19D 32L from 67 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.19 PPG from 32 outings (21W 7D 4L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 11D 20L from 32 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.91 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 34W 18D 15L in their last 67 games (1.79 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 16W 19D 32L in their last 67 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cosenza away?
Frosinone's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.19 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cosenza in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Frosinone's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Frosinone 2-2 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Cosenza?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 38%, Cosenza 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Frosinone) and 41% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Cosenza in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Frosinone's recent matches and 53% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Frosinone's recent games and 41% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Cosenza tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Frosinone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Frosinone 0-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.93 xG and Cosenza 0.65 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.43 / defence 0.91 against Cosenza attack 0.74 / defence 1.74, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 83% | Draw 12% | Cosenza 5%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a Cosenza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 5% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 49%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.