Frosinone 3-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Genoa have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Genoa away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Genoa — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 0, Genoa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Genoa trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 43% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 47% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.31 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.268 / defence 0.827 | Genoa attack 0.990 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.020. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Frosinone games / 36 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 32% | Genoa 22%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 4.55. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 32% | Genoa 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Frosinone 1.31 / Genoa 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.268 / def 0.827 | Genoa attack 0.990 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Genoa xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Genoa kick off?
Frosinone vs Genoa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Frosinone 3 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Frosinone vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Genoa part of?
Frosinone vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 46% chance of winning, Genoa a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Frosinone and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in?
Frosinone (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.08
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.14
0.84
Genoa xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
6%
16.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.84 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 37W 21D 16L from 74 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 24W 27D 23L across 74 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 23W 9D 5L from 37 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 10W 13D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.00 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Genoa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 37W 21D 16L in their last 74 games (1.78 PPG), while Genoa have gone 24W 27D 23L in their last 74 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Genoa away?
Frosinone's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.11 PPG; Genoa away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Genoa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Genoa?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 38%, Genoa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Frosinone) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Genoa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Frosinone's recent matches and 43% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Frosinone's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Genoa tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Genoa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Genoa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Genoa 3-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.31 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Genoa attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 46% | Draw 32% | Genoa 22%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 47%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.