Frosinone 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 29 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Frosinone's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 46% versus Benevento 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 51% | Benevento 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.27 xG and Benevento 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.204 / defence 0.724 | Benevento attack 1.028 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.048. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Frosinone games / 59 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 47% | Draw 30% | Benevento 22%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 4.55. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 20% | Benevento 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 47% | Draw 30% | Benevento 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Frosinone 1.27 / Benevento 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.204 / def 0.724 | Benevento attack 1.028 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Benevento xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Benevento kick off?
Frosinone vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Benevento?
Frosinone 1 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Frosinone vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Benevento part of?
Frosinone vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 47% chance of winning, Benevento a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Frosinone and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Benevento in?
Frosinone (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.20x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (1.03x) against Frosinone's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.29
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.05
0.78
Benevento xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.78 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 29W 16D 14L from 59 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 19L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Frosinone against 1.49 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 18W 8D 3L from 29 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 11W 10D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.34 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Benevento in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 29W 16D 14L in their last 59 games (1.75 PPG), while Benevento have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Benevento away?
Frosinone's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.14 PPG; Benevento away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Benevento in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 1-4 on 6 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Benevento have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Frosinone 1-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Benevento?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 41%, Benevento 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Frosinone) and 28% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Benevento in 31%; Benevento in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Frosinone's recent matches and 45% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Frosinone's recent games and 28% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Benevento tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Benevento in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Benevento 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Benevento 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.27 xG and Benevento 0.78 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.20 / defence 0.72 against Benevento attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 47% | Draw 30% | Benevento 22%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Benevento 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.75 PPG, Benevento 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.