Feralpisalo 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Feralpisalo welcome Venezia to Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Feralpisalo stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Feralpisalo have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 home games (0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Venezia — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Feralpisalo trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Venezia trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 12% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 50% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 56% | Venezia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.67 xG and Venezia 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.746 / defence 1.263 | Venezia attack 1.006 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Venezia bring a tight defence (rating 0.735, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Feralpisalo's projected output down. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 18 games and Venezia's last 56.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 16% | Draw 27% | Venezia 56%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 6.13 | Draw 3.66 | Venezia 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 8 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 38% (last 8 home games) | Venezia 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 16% | Draw 27% | Venezia 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Feralpisalo 0.67 / Venezia 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.746 / def 1.263 | Venezia attack 1.006 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Venezia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Venezia xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Venezia kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Venezia?
Feralpisalo 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Venezia part of?
Feralpisalo vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 16% chance of winning, Venezia a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Feralpisalo and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.75) and Venezia's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 18 games and Venezia's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
16%
6.13
27%
3.66
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.15
1.48
Venezia xG
6.13
16%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
4%
26.89
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.48 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 3W 4D 11L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 10W 4D 4L from 18 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Feralpisalo have posted 0.62 PPG from their last 8 home games (1W 2D 5L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 4W 2D 2L from their last 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Feralpisalo vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Venezia in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Venezia have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.62 PPG; Venezia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Venezia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Venezia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Venezia 2-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Venezia's games tend to start slowly — only 12% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Feralpisalo 38% BTTS, Venezia 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Feralpisalo) and 38% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 50%; Feralpisalo have failed to score in 50% of games; Venezia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 25% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 38% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 12% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 19, as Feralpisalo and Venezia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.67 xG and Venezia 1.48 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.75 / defence 1.26 against Venezia attack 1.01 / defence 0.73, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 16% | Draw 27% | Venezia 56%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 56%, Venezia 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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