Empoli vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Empoli haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Empoli against 1.30 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Empoli register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Juve Stabia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.48 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.975 / defence 1.008 | Juve Stabia attack 0.975 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Empoli games / 38 Juve Stabia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Empoli 46% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Juve Stabia 3.85. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 70% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 46% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Empoli 1.48 / Juve Stabia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.975 / def 1.008 | Juve Stabia attack 0.975 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Empoli (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juve Stabia part of?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 46% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Empoli and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.97) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.97x) against Empoli's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.49
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Empoli and 1.05 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 9W 14D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. Empoli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Juve Stabia's form line: 12W 16D 10L from 38 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. Juve Stabia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Empoli against 1.37 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (5W 11D 3L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 8D 8L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.24 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Pre-Season
Juve Stabia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 9W 14D 15L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juve Stabia away?
Empoli's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.37 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Empoli 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Empoli, 58% for Juve Stabia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Empoli) and 53% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Empoli's games and 58% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Empoli's recent games and 53% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.