Crotone 1-2 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crotone and Spal meet at Stadio Ezio Scida in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ezio Scida, Crotone have gone 1W 4D 3L this season (8 games, 0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spal (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Spal arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Crotone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 53% versus Spal 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 47% | Spal 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 0.72 xG and Spal 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.795 / defence 1.339 | Spal attack 0.678 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.176. Crotone's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Crotone games / 15 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 24% | Draw 33% | Spal 43%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Spal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Crotone's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: Crotone 62% | Spal 29%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 24% | Draw 33% | Spal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Crotone 0.72 / Spal 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.795 / def 1.339 | Spal attack 0.678 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Spal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Spal xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Spal kick off?
Crotone vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Spal?
Crotone 1 - 2 Spal.
Where is Crotone vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Spal part of?
Crotone vs Spal is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 24% chance of winning, Spal a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Crotone and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Spal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crotone and Spal in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Crotone's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.68x) against Crotone's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
24%
4.19
33%
2.99
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Crotone xG
Total xG
1.79
1.07
Spal xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 17.8 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Crotone and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Crotone and 1.07 for Spal, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Crotone have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 5D 9L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal's form line: 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spal are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crotone have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
On the road, Spal have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crotone are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.33 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spal in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Spal in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 1W 5D 9L in their last 15 games (0.53 PPG), while Spal have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Spal away?
Spal's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 0.86 PPG; Spal away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Spal have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Spal 1-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Spal see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 57%, Spal 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Crotone and 14% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Spal in 43%; Crotone have failed to score in 43% of games; Spal in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crotone's recent matches and 29% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crotone vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Crotone's recent games and 14% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Spal tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Spal in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spal edge out Crotone 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Crotone 1-2 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 0.72 xG and Spal 1.07 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spal outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.80 / defence 1.34 against Spal attack 0.68 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 24% | Draw 33% | Spal 43%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 47%, Spal 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spal arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.