Crotone 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crotone at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crotone vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Ezio Scida to face Crotone in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 6 May 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crotone's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Ezio Scida this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Crotone against 1.30 for Parma. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Crotone 0W, Parma 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Crotone half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 62% versus Parma 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crotone 49% | Parma 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.17 xG and Parma 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 0.990 / defence 1.196 | Parma attack 0.861 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.080. Data: 37 Crotone games / 37 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 35% | Draw 32% | Parma 33%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crotone are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crotone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crotone 60% | Parma 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 35% | Draw 32% | Parma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Crotone 1.17 / Parma 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 0.990 / def 1.196 | Parma attack 0.861 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Crotone (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Parma xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Parma kick off?
Crotone vs Parma kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Parma?
Crotone 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Crotone vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Parma part of?
Crotone vs Parma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 35% chance of winning, Parma a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Crotone and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Crotone and Parma in?
Crotone (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crotone's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.86x) against Crotone's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
35%
2.82
32%
3.14
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.28
1.11
Parma xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crotone and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Crotone and 1.11 for Parma, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crotone's recent record stands at 4W 14D 19L from 37 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 11L across 37 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crotone have managed 4W 8D 6L from 18 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.70 PPG overall — Crotone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Parma's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Crotone are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.27 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Parma in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 4W 14D 19L in their last 37 games (0.70 PPG), while Parma have gone 10W 16D 11L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.11 PPG; Parma away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Crotone 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 61%, Parma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crotone) and 56% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 33%; Crotone have failed to score in 33% of games; Parma in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crotone's games and 56% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crotone's recent games and 56% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Parma tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Parma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Crotone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Crotone 0-1 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.17 xG and Parma 1.11 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crotone fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Parma attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 35% | Draw 32% | Parma 33%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 49%, Parma 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.