Cremonese 3-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sudtirol have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cremonese against 1.20 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cremonese, 2 for Sudtirol and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 4–0 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Sudtirol 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Sudtirol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.43 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.042 / defence 1.141 | Sudtirol attack 1.087 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.095. Data: 62 Cremonese games / 62 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 80% | Sudtirol 20%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Cremonese 1.43 / Sudtirol 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.042 / def 1.141 | Sudtirol attack 1.087 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cremonese vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Cremonese 3 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Cremonese vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sudtirol part of?
Cremonese vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cremonese and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sudtirol?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Sudtirol in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.09x) against Cremonese's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.50
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.79
1.36
Sudtirol xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.36 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 17D 16L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 19W 15D 28L from 62 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sudtirol.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 8W 7D 15L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.19 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 29W 17D 16L in their last 62 games (1.68 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 19W 15D 28L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sudtirol away?
Cremonese's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.70 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-4 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Sudtirol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Sudtirol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 53% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 53% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 53% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Sudtirol 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.43 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Sudtirol attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sudtirol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.