Cremonese vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.20 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pisa, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Cremonese.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
It is worth noting that Pisa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Pisa trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Pisa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.06 xG and Pisa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.837 / defence 0.962 | Pisa attack 1.059 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Cremonese games / 10 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 32% | Pisa 39%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 32% | Pisa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Cremonese 1.06 / Pisa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.837 / def 0.962 | Pisa attack 1.059 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pisa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 29% chance of winning, Pisa a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Record (9 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 2 | Pisa 5W.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.84x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
29%
3.44
32%
3.12
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.31
1.25
Pisa xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
14%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.25 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 11W 13D 24L from 48 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 6W 15D 27L across 48 games — 0.69 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.96 PPG, Pisa on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 5W 8D 11L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 2W 10D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.92 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 15D 27L in their last 48 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.96 PPG; Pisa away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pisa in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
5
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 9 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Pisa 3-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 67% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 42% of games; Pisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Cremonese's matches and 67% of Pisa's.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.