Cremonese 2-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cremonese take on Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cremonese welcome Ascoli to Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Ascoli have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Ascoli away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cremonese) versus 0.80 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cremonese have won 1, Ascoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2022, ended Cremonese 0–1 Ascoli — a Ascoli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 54% versus Ascoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.654 / defence 0.974 | Ascoli attack 0.762 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.133. Cremonese's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Ascoli's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Ascoli's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Cremonese's last 5 games and Ascoli's last 43.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 35% | Draw 36% | Ascoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.84 | Draw 2.78 | Ascoli 3.46. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 35% | Draw 36% | Ascoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Cremonese 0.95 / Ascoli 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.654 / def 0.974 | Ascoli attack 0.762 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Ascoli xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Ascoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Cremonese 2 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Cremonese vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Ascoli part of?
Cremonese vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 6) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 35% chance of winning, Ascoli a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cremonese and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Cremonese vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.65) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 5 games and Ascoli's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
36%
2.78
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.79
0.84
Ascoli xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.84 for Ascoli, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 6W 15D 22L from 43 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 19L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.77 PPG, Ascoli on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 4W 6D 12L from their last 22 home games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.02 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Cremonese vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 6W 15D 22L in their last 43 games (0.77 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.82 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won Ascoli 1-4 Cremonese.
Cremonese's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ascoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2024: Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 41%, Ascoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cremonese) and 36% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 46% of games; Ascoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cremonese's recent games and 36% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Cremonese's recent matches and 64% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Ascoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Ascoli finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.84 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ascoli outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.65 / defence 0.97 against Ascoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 35% | Draw 36% | Ascoli 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 44%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 0.77 PPG, Ascoli 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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