Cittadella 0-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cittadella at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Spal travel to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to take on Cittadella. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's home record at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cittadella at 1.20 PPG versus Spal's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cittadella have won 0, Spal 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cittadella in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spal in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 44% versus Spal 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 33% | Spal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.41 xG and Spal 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.918 / defence 1.048 | Spal attack 1.093 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Cittadella games / 46 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 41% | Draw 26% | Spal 33%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Spal 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 50% | Spal 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 41% | Draw 26% | Spal 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Cittadella 1.41 / Spal 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.918 / def 1.048 | Spal attack 1.093 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Spal xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Spal kick off?
Cittadella vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Spal?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Spal.
Where is Cittadella vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Spal part of?
Cittadella vs Spal is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 41% chance of winning, Spal a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cittadella and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Spal?
Record (2 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 2 | Spal 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Spal in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Spal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.92) and Spal's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.86
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.66
1.25
Spal xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.25 for Spal, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella's recent record stands at 15W 16D 15L from 46 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 17L across 46 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.33 PPG, Spal on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 5W 10D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.22 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Spal in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Spal have gone 11W 18D 17L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Spal away?
Cittadella's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.43 PPG; Spal away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Spal in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cittadella's record when hosting Spal specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cittadella
3
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Spal have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Spal 2-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 44%, Spal 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cittadella) and 39% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 26% of games; Spal in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cittadella's recent matches and 52% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cittadella's recent games and 39% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Spal tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Spal in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 9, as Cittadella and Spal drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.41 xG and Spal 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Spal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Spal attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 41% | Draw 26% | Spal 33%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 33%, Spal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spal's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.33 PPG, Spal 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.