Cittadella 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Cittadella welcome Parma to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 4W 1D 4L from 9 Serie B matches — 1.44 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.44 — Cittadella are significantly better at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato than their overall form suggests.
Parma — All Games: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cittadella 1.44 PPG, Parma 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 33% versus Parma 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 33% | Parma 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.33 xG and Parma 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.926 / defence 1.054 | Parma attack 1.109 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.122. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Cittadella games / 9 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 35% | Draw 31% | Parma 34%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Parma 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Parma 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 35% | Draw 31% | Parma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Cittadella 1.33 / Parma 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.926 / def 1.054 | Parma attack 1.109 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Parma xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Parma kick off?
Cittadella vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Cittadella vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Parma part of?
Cittadella vs Parma is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 35% chance of winning, Parma a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cittadella and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Parma in?
Cittadella (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.93) and Parma's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.21
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.64
1.31
Parma xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.31 for Parma, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cittadella's recent record stands at 4W 1D 4L from 9 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 3L across 9 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.44 PPG, Parma on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Cittadella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Parma's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 67%.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Parma in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Parma have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Parma away?
Cittadella's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 2.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Parma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cittadella and Parma runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Cittadella's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cittadella
1
Draws
5
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Parma have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Cittadella 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Parma 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Cittadella and 100% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Cittadella's games and 80% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cittadella vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Cittadella's matches and 100% of Parma's.
Do Cittadella and Parma tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Parma in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.33 xG and Parma 1.31 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.93 / defence 1.05 against Parma attack 1.11 / defence 1.36, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 35% | Draw 31% | Parma 34%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 33%, Parma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.44 PPG, Parma 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.