Catanzaro 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Catanzaro at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Catanzaro vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Nicola Ceravolo to face Catanzaro in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Catanzaro's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Catanzaro have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
Monza (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Catanzaro against 2.10 for Monza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Catanzaro lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Catanzaro — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Monza — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Catanzaro 57% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Catanzaro 51% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Catanzaro 1.47 xG and Monza 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Catanzaro attack 1.130 / defence 0.974 | Monza attack 0.991 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Data: 69 Catanzaro games / 32 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Catanzaro 45% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Catanzaro 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 3.85. Catanzaro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Catanzaro are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Catanzaro if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Catanzaro 50% | Monza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Catanzaro vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Catanzaro 45% | Draw 29% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Catanzaro 1.47 / Monza 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Catanzaro attack 1.130 / def 0.974 | Monza attack 0.991 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Catanzaro xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Monza xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Catanzaro vs Monza kick off?
Catanzaro vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What was the final score in Catanzaro vs Monza?
Catanzaro 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Catanzaro vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What competition is Catanzaro vs Monza part of?
Catanzaro vs Monza is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Catanzaro vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Catanzaro a 45% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Catanzaro and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Catanzaro vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Catanzaro 0W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Catanzaro and Monza in?
Catanzaro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Monza (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Catanzaro's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.99x) against Catanzaro's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 69/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.39
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Catanzaro xG
Total xG
2.53
1.06
Monza xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Catanzaro vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Catanzaro and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Catanzaro and 1.06 for Monza, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Catanzaro vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Catanzaro have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 26W 28D 16L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 22W 17D 31L from 70 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Catanzaro against 1.19 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Catanzaro have posted 1.79 PPG from 34 outings (16W 13D 5L).
On the road, Monza have gone 9W 8D 17L from 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Catanzaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Catanzaro are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Catanzaro
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Catanzaro and Monza in coming into this match?
Catanzaro have gone 26W 28D 16L in their last 70 games (1.51 PPG), while Monza have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Catanzaro at home or Monza away?
Catanzaro's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Catanzaro at home: 1.79 PPG; Monza away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Catanzaro or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Monza in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Catanzaro have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Catanzaro
1
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Catanzaro have won 1, Monza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Catanzaro and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Monza 0-2 Catanzaro.
Who has won more matches between Catanzaro and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Catanzaro 53%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Catanzaro) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Catanzaro keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Monza in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Catanzaro home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Catanzaro play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Catanzaro's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Catanzaro vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Catanzaro's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Catanzaro and Monza tend to score early?
Catanzaro have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Monza in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Catanzaro and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Catanzaro and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.47 xG and Monza 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Monza attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 45% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 51%, Monza 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Catanzaro's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.51 PPG, Monza 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.