Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Carrarese welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Carrarese) versus 1.12 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Vicenza Virtus 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 38% | Vicenza Virtus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.53 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.870 / defence 0.956 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Carrarese games / 7 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 26%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Vicenza Virtus 3.85. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 50% | Vicenza Virtus 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 46% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Carrarese 1.53 / Vicenza Virtus 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.870 / def 0.956 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Vicenza Virtus xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 46% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.87) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.49
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.64
1.10
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
17.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.10 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Carrarese have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 2W 1D 5L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 0.88 PPG, Vicenza Virtus on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vicenza Virtus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Vicenza Virtus's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 0.75 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.25 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 50%, Vicenza Virtus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Carrarese and 75% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Carrarese's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Carrarese's matches and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.