Carrarese 3-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carrarese have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Spezia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Carrarese, 2 for Spezia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Carrarese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 47% versus Spezia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Spezia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.54 xG and Spezia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.929 / defence 0.879 | Spezia attack 0.910 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.098. Data: 70 Carrarese games / 70 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 51% | Draw 29% | Spezia 20%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Spezia 5.00. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 51% | Draw 29% | Spezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Carrarese 1.54 / Spezia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.929 / def 0.879 | Spezia attack 0.910 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Spezia kick off?
Carrarese vs Spezia kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Spezia?
Carrarese 3 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Carrarese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Spezia part of?
Carrarese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 51% chance of winning, Spezia a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Carrarese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 0 | Spezia 2W.
What form are Carrarese and Spezia in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.91x) against Carrarese's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.47
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.42
0.88
Spezia xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.88 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 20W 24D 26L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 24W 23D 23L from 70 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Carrarese against 1.36 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (16W 11D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Spezia have gone 9W 14D 12L from 35 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.29 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 20W 24D 26L in their last 70 games (1.20 PPG), while Spezia have gone 24W 23D 23L in their last 70 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Spezia away?
Carrarese's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.69 PPG; Spezia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Spezia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Carrarese go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carrarese
0
Draws
2
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 2, Spezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Carrarese 3-1 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 31%, Spezia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Carrarese) and 37% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Spezia in 37%; Carrarese have failed to score in 37% of games; Spezia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Carrarese's recent matches and 43% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Carrarese's recent games and 37% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Spezia tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, Spezia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Spezia 3-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.54 xG and Spezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Spezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 51% | Draw 29% | Spezia 20%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Spezia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.20 PPG, Spezia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.