Carrarese 0-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Reggiana travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Carrarese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 1W 0D 5L from 6 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggiana away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reggiana are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Carrarese in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Reggiana in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 50% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.843 / defence 1.109 | Reggiana attack 1.002 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.132. Data: 6 Carrarese games / 44 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 27% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Reggiana 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 50% | Reggiana 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 27% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Carrarese 0.97 / Reggiana 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.843 / def 1.109 | Reggiana attack 1.002 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Reggiana xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Reggiana kick off?
Carrarese vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Carrarese vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Carrarese vs Reggiana part of?
Carrarese vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 27% chance of winning, Reggiana a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Carrarese and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Reggiana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Reggiana in?
Carrarese (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.84) and Reggiana's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
27%
3.67
31%
3.24
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.23
1.26
Reggiana xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.6 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.26 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Carrarese have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 5L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggiana's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reggiana are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carrarese.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Reggiana in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Carrarese or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Reggiana in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Carrarese's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Carrarese
3
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Reggiana have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Reggiana 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 50%, Reggiana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Carrarese) and 50% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 50%; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Carrarese's recent matches and 50% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Carrarese's recent games and 50% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Reggiana tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese and Reggiana finished level at 0-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.26 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 27% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 50%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Carrarese managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.