Carrarese 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Carrarese take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carrarese and Cosenza meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carrarese have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 8 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Carrarese's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 29% versus Cosenza 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 29% | Cosenza 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.01 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.793 / defence 0.717 | Cosenza attack 1.133 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Carrarese games / 55 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 35% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 28%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.86 | Draw 2.63 | Cosenza 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 12% | Cosenza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 35% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Carrarese 1.01 / Cosenza 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.793 / def 0.717 | Cosenza attack 1.133 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cosenza xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cosenza kick off?
Carrarese vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Cosenza?
Carrarese 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Carrarese vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cosenza part of?
Carrarese vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 35% chance of winning, Cosenza a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Carrarese and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Cosenza in?
Carrarese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.13x) against Carrarese's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
38%
2.65
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.90
0.88
Cosenza xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.88 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese's recent record stands at 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 5L across 17 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Carrarese against 1.18 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cosenza's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carrarese have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 8D 5L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cosenza away?
Carrarese's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.88 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Cosenza in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 12%, Cosenza 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Carrarese and 50% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Carrarese's recent matches and 75% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Carrarese's recent games and 50% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cosenza tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.01 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.79 / defence 0.72 against Cosenza attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 35% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 29%, Cosenza 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cosenza's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.18 PPG, Cosenza 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.