Cagliari 3-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals as Cagliari welcome Parma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Parma have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Cagliari) versus 2.10 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cagliari, 1 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Parma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.26 xG and Parma 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.050 / defence 0.933 | Parma attack 1.023 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Data: 38 Cagliari games / 76 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 40% | Draw 32% | Parma 28%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 60% | Parma 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 40% | Draw 32% | Parma 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Cagliari 1.26 / Parma 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.050 / def 0.933 | Parma attack 1.023 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Parma kick off?
Cagliari vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 May 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Cagliari 3 - 2 Parma.
Where is Cagliari vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Parma part of?
Cagliari vs Parma is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cagliari and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Parma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.05x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.17
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.27
1.01
Parma xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.01 for Parma, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 22W 26D 28L from 76 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 28W 26D 22L across 76 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.21 PPG, Parma on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 15W 11D 12L from 38 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 12W 15D 11L across 38 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.26 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Parma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 22W 26D 28L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Parma have gone 28W 26D 22L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Parma away?
Cagliari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.47 PPG; Parma away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Parma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Parma runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Parma specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cagliari
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 4, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Parma 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Parma?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 68%, Parma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 42% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 34%; Parma in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 47% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 42% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Parma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Parma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Parma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Parma 3-2 at Unipol Domus, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.26 xG and Parma 1.01 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Parma attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 40% | Draw 32% | Parma 28%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Parma 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.21 PPG, Parma 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.