Brescia 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ternana at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Ternana encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Ternana (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Ternana have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Ternana are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Brescia lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).

Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 51% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 33% | Ternana 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.87 xG and Ternana 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.689 / defence 1.292 | Ternana attack 0.747 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.006. Brescia's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Brescia games / 69 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Brescia 30% | Draw 34% | Ternana 36%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Ternana 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 30% | Ternana 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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