Brescia 2-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Brescia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.74 xG and Sudtirol 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.055 / defence 0.937 | Sudtirol attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.093. Data: 38 Brescia games / 0 Sudtirol games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brescia 57% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 18%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Sudtirol 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Brescia (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 57% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Brescia 1.74 / Sudtirol 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.055 / def 0.937 | Sudtirol attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Brescia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sudtirol xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Brescia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Brescia 2 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Brescia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Sudtirol part of?
Brescia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 57% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Brescia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Sudtirol in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Brescia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brescia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.85x) against Brescia's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.94
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.61
0.87
Sudtirol xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
3%
32.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Brescia and 0.87 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Sudtirol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Pre-Season
Sudtirol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
3
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Sudtirol?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.74 xG and Sudtirol 0.87 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Sudtirol attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 57% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 18%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.