Brescia 2-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 14 as Brescia welcome Spal to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brescia at 1.40 PPG versus Spal's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brescia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Spal in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Spal and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Spal in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 57% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 35% | Spal 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.32 xG and Spal 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.042 / defence 0.863 | Spal attack 0.928 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.113. Data: 51 Brescia games / 51 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Spal 24%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Spal 4.17. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Brescia 70% | Spal 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Spal 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Brescia 1.32 / Spal 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.042 / def 0.863 | Spal attack 0.928 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Brescia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Spal xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Spal kick off?
Brescia vs Spal kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Spal?
Brescia 2 - 0 Spal.
Where is Brescia vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Spal part of?
Brescia vs Spal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 45% chance of winning, Spal a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Brescia and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Spal?
Record (2 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 1 | Spal 0W.
What form are Brescia and Spal in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.04x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.19
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.21
0.89
Spal xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Brescia and 0.89 for Spal, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 20D 11L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.12 PPG from 51 outings (12W 21D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Brescia's home form reads 11W 10D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Spal have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (5W 12D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.24 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Spal in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 20W 20D 11L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Spal have gone 12W 21D 18L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Spal away?
Brescia's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.72 PPG; Spal away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Brescia or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Spal in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brescia's record when hosting Spal specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Spal have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Spal 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Spal?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 60%, Spal 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Brescia and 36% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Spal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Brescia's recent matches and 48% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Brescia's recent games and 36% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Spal tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Spal in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Spal 2-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.32 xG and Spal 0.89 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Spal attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Spal 24%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 35%, Spal 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spal's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.