Brescia 2-5 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brescia at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brescia face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Sassuolo in Serie B (matchday 9). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Brescia have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brescia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sassuolo's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 69%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Sassuolo 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 37% | Sassuolo 52%). Note also that Sassuolo surrender HT leads in 69% of cases while Brescia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.36 xG and Sassuolo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.251 / defence 0.865 | Sassuolo attack 0.949 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.144. Brescia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 1.36 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Brescia's last 46 games and Sassuolo's last 8.
Result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 24%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.24 | Draw 3.19 | Sassuolo 4.16. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Brescia 1.36 / Sassuolo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.251 / def 0.865 | Sassuolo attack 0.949 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Brescia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sassuolo xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Sassuolo kick off?
Brescia vs Sassuolo kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Brescia 2 - 5 Sassuolo.
Where is Brescia vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Sassuolo part of?
Brescia vs Sassuolo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 45% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Brescia and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Brescia vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.25x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.95x) against Brescia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 46 games and Sassuolo's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.19
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.30
0.94
Sassuolo xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Brescia and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Brescia and 0.94 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 16D 15L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 11W 12D 23L from 46 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Brescia against 0.98 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (9W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 4W 6D 12L from their last 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.24 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
Brescia (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Brescia vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Sassuolo away?
Brescia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.59 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Sassuolo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Sassuolo 2-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 46%, Sassuolo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Brescia) and 54% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 36% of games; Sassuolo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Sassuolo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Brescia's recent matches and 64% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Brescia's recent games and 54% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Brescia's recent matches and 73% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Brescia 2-5 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.36 xG and Sassuolo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 0.94 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.25 / defence 0.86 against Sassuolo attack 0.95 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 45% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 24%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 37%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.33 PPG, Sassuolo 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 9
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →