Brescia 3-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 30 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Brescia 1W, Cremonese 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 51% versus Cremonese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 36% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.34 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.176 / defence 0.770 | Cremonese attack 1.228 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.102. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Brescia's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Brescia games / 44 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 41% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 27%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 40% | Cremonese 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 41% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Brescia 1.34 / Cremonese 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.176 / def 0.770 | Cremonese attack 1.228 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Brescia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cremonese xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Cremonese kick off?
Brescia vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cremonese?
Brescia 3 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Brescia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cremonese part of?
Brescia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 41% chance of winning, Cremonese a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Brescia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cremonese?
Record (4 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 3W.
What form are Brescia and Cremonese in?
Brescia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Brescia vs Cremonese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brescia's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.23x) against Brescia's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.12
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.38
1.04
Cremonese xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brescia and 1.04 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 15D 15L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.73 PPG from 45 outings (22W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Brescia against 1.73 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brescia's home form reads 9W 8D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.40 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 22W 12D 11L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.59 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Brescia or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cremonese in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
1
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Cremonese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Cremonese 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 41%, Cremonese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Brescia) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cremonese in 32%; Brescia have failed to score in 36% of games; Cremonese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Brescia's recent matches and 50% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Brescia's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Cremonese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Cremonese 3-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.34 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cremonese outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.18 / defence 0.77 against Cremonese attack 1.23 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 41% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 27%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.33 PPG, Cremonese 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.