Benevento 1-3 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 32 as Benevento welcome Spal to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spal's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 0.60 PPG, Spal 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Benevento's 30% rate and Spal's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 1 for Spal and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Benevento in-play tendencies (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Spal in-play tendencies (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 42% versus Spal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 35% | Spal 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.97 xG and Spal 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.723 / defence 1.102 | Spal attack 0.723 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 0.989. Benevento's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Benevento games / 69 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 35% | Spal 27%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Spal 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Spal's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 30% | Spal 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 35% | Spal 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Benevento 0.97 / Spal 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.723 / def 1.102 | Spal attack 0.723 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.171 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Benevento (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Spal xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Spal kick off?
Benevento vs Spal kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Spal?
Benevento 1 - 3 Spal.
Where is Benevento vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Spal part of?
Benevento vs Spal is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 38% chance of winning, Spal a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Benevento and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Spal?
Record (3 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Spal 1W.
What form are Benevento and Spal in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Spal (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.72x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
38%
2.66
35%
2.85
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Benevento xG
Total xG
1.76
0.79
Spal xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 13.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Benevento and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Benevento and 0.79 for Spal, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 19D 25L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.03 PPG from 69 outings (15W 26D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.36 PPG, Spal on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Benevento's home form reads 13W 7D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Spal have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (7W 13D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.13 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Spal in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 games (1.36 PPG), while Spal have gone 15W 26D 28L in their last 69 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Spal away?
Benevento's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.39 PPG; Spal away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Benevento or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Spal in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benevento's record when hosting Spal specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Spal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Benevento 1-3 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Spal?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 46%, Spal 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Benevento) and 36% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Spal in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Benevento's recent matches and 42% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Benevento's recent games and 36% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Spal tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Spal in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Benevento 1-3 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.97 xG and Spal 0.79 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Spal outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.72 / defence 1.10 against Spal attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 38% | Draw 35% | Spal 27%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Spal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 35%, Spal 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Spal's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.36 PPG, Spal 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spal win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.