Benevento 0-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 4 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Serie B this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Benevento against 1.10 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 57% versus Palermo 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 36% | Palermo 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.38 xG and Palermo 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.882 / defence 1.052 | Palermo attack 0.874 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.121. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Benevento games / 14 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 43% | Draw 31% | Palermo 26%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Palermo 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 60% | Palermo 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 43% | Draw 31% | Palermo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Benevento 1.38 / Palermo 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.882 / def 1.052 | Palermo attack 0.874 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Benevento (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Palermo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Palermo kick off?
Benevento vs Palermo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Palermo?
Benevento 0 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Benevento vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Palermo part of?
Benevento vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 43% chance of winning, Palermo a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benevento and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Palermo in?
Benevento (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.88) and Palermo's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.87x) against Benevento's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.24
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.41
1.03
Palermo xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Benevento and 1.03 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 6D 5L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Benevento against 1.07 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Benevento's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 29%.
Defensively: Palermo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Palermo in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Palermo have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Palermo away?
Benevento's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.00 PPG; Palermo away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Benevento or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palermo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Palermo 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 67%, Palermo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Benevento) and 50% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Benevento have failed to score in 33% of games; Palermo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Benevento's recent matches and 33% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Palermo tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palermo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Benevento 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Benevento 0-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.38 xG and Palermo 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Benevento fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Palermo attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 43% | Draw 31% | Palermo 26%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 36%, Palermo 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palermo's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.07 PPG, Palermo 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.